Miami-Dade's Two Housing Markets: What September 2026 Tells Buyers and Sellers
Miami-Dade no longer has one housing market. It has two, and they are moving in different directions.
The September 2026 numbers from MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, released on October 16, show single-family homes still tight and still rising in price. Condos tell a different story: more supply, flat prices and more room to negotiate. All of this is happening while the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.40%, according to Freddie Mac's October 15 survey, the highest level since 2023.
If you are planning to buy or sell in the next few months, which side of that split you are on matters more than the headline.
The September 2026 numbers at a glance
Here is what the Miami-Dade report shows for September 2026 compared with September 2025:
| Metric | Single-family | Condos |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $692,000 (+4.06%) | $417,090 (−0.69%) |
| Closed sales | 824 (−4.7%) | 909 (+1%) |
| Active listings | 4,536 (−16.6%) | 11,706 (−7.24%) |
| Months of supply | 5.1 (seller's market) | 12.3 (buyer's market) |
| Median days to contract | 41 (from 50) | 67 (from 75) |
| Median % of original list price received | 95% | 94% |
Total sales fell 2%, to 1,733. Before August 2026, Miami-Dade sales had risen year over year for 11 consecutive months. MIAMI REALTORS attributes part of the slowdown to rates rising nearly 0.6 percentage points since early September, and to uncertainty around Florida's October 6 state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Isaias.
Single-family homes: still a seller's market
With 5.1 months of supply, single-family homes remain a seller's market. Inventory fell 16.6% in a year, and the median price has risen in 175 of the last 179 months, according to the report.
Affordable inventory is especially thin. At the end of September, just 123 single-family homes in Miami-Dade were listed under $400,000. That is 3% of active single-family listings.
What this means for sellers
Well-priced homes are still going under contract faster than last year: a median of 41 days versus 50. But buyers are paying 7.4% rates, and the median single-family home closed at 95% of its original list price. Overpricing still costs time.
What this means for buyers
Competition for good houses has not gone away. The leverage you do have is diligence: inspections, insurance quotes and a clear picture of what the house will cost you after closing.
Condos: a buyer's market with fine print
At 12.3 months of supply, existing condos are firmly in buyer's-market territory. The median price slipped 0.69%, to $417,090.
Activity has not dried up, though. Condo sales rose 1% overall, and sales between $300,000 and $400,000 rose 14.5%, from 159 to 182. Buyers are returning where prices are near the median.
Financing is the fine print. According to the report, only 21 of the 2,397 condo buildings in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties are approved for FHA loans. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also eliminated the limited-review option for many condo loans on August 3, 2026. In practice, a buyer who needs financing should confirm early that the lender can work with that specific building.
Cash fills part of the gap: 49.4% of Miami condo sales in September were all-cash, versus 26.2% of single-family sales.
What 7.40% means in monthly payments
Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% on October 15, 2026, compared with 6.27% a year earlier. Here is a simple illustration using the September median prices, 20% down and principal and interest only (no taxes, insurance or HOA dues):
- Median single-family home ($692,000): a $553,600 loan is about $3,833 a month at 7.40%, versus about $3,416 at 6.27%. That is roughly $417 more each month.
- Median condo ($417,090): a $333,672 loan is about $2,310 a month at 7.40%, versus about $2,059 at 6.27%. Roughly $251 more.
These are illustrative calculations, not a loan quote. Your actual rate and payment depend on your credit, your down payment and the lender. Talk to a licensed mortgage professional before you make an offer.
A practical example: reading a property like an engineer
As an engineer and Certified General Contractor, I look past the listing price to the costs that come after closing. In a market where rates already stretch the budget, a surprise repair hurts more. Two examples:
Single-family home. On a house, the four systems that drive the biggest post-closing bills are the roof, the air conditioning, the plumbing and the electrical system. Their age and condition also affect insurance quotes in Florida. Before you compete on price, get an insurance quote based on the property's actual condition, and ask for permit history on the roof and AC. A 5.1-month market still leaves time for proper inspections; don't waive them to win.
Condo. In a condo, you share the building's systems and its future repairs. Before you make an offer, ask the association for its recent financial statements, reserve information and any structural or engineering reports, and have a professional review them. A low price in a 12.3-month market is only a good deal if you understand the assessments that may come with the building. For legal questions about association documents, consult a real estate attorney.
What to do now
- Buyers of condos: this is the segment with the most negotiating room. Use it, but verify financing eligibility for the building first.
- Buyers of single-family homes: expect competition under $700,000. Get pre-approved, get insurance quotes early, and keep your inspection contingency.
- Sellers of single-family homes: demand is there, but price to the 7.40% buyer, not to last spring.
- Sellers of condos: condition and documentation matter. Organized association documents and a realistic price help you stand out among 11,706 listings.
FAQ
Is Miami-Dade a buyer's or seller's market in fall 2026?
Both. As of September 2026, single-family homes had 5.1 months of supply, a seller's market, while existing condos had 12.3 months, a buyer's market, according to MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld.
What is the median home price in Miami-Dade right now?
In September 2026, the median single-family price was $692,000, up 4.06% from a year earlier. The median condo price was $417,090, down 0.69%, per MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld.
What are mortgage rates in October 2026?
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, unchanged from the prior week and up from 6.27% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%.
Talk to me
Buying or selling in Southeast Florida, from Miami-Dade and Broward to Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie? I can help you read the numbers for your specific property and neighborhood.
- WhatsApp: +1 (786) 853-1813
- Email: dayner@dayneralvarez.com
- Learn more: dayneralvarez.com/#realestate
10300 SW 72nd St #162, Miami, FL 33173
WhatsApp +1 (786) 853-1813 · dayner@dayneralvarez.com
Equal Housing Opportunity
This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. For your specific situation, consult an attorney, accountant or licensed inspector.
Sources
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, "Miami-Dade Breaks Annual Record for $30 Million-Plus Home Sales in Just Nine Months" (Oct. 16, 2026)
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, "South Florida's Million-Dollar Home Market Booms Despite Rising Mortgage Rates" (Oct. 19, 2026)
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week of Oct. 15, 2026)
- Trading Economics, "US Mortgage Rates Hold at Highest Since 2023" (Oct. 15, 2026)
